Saturday, 24 January 2026

 


When common households park large portions of savings in gold and silver, it is mostly non-productive for the economy. At scale, it slows industrial growth, credit creation, and innovation.

But there’s a why, a when, and a limit to when metals do make sense. 

1. Why are precious metals economically “unproductive”

Gold and silver:

  • Do not create jobs
  • Do not generate cash flow (no dividends, no interest)
  • Do not expand productive capacity
  • Sit idle in lockers, cupboards, or vaults

From an economic systems view:

They store value but do not circulate value

When millions of households do this simultaneously:

  • Banks receive fewer deposits
  • Less capital is available for industry, MSMEs, and infrastructure
  • Credit growth slows
  • GDP growth loses momentum

This is especially relevant in capital-hungry developing economies.

 

2. The “blocked flow” problem (this is key)

Money has economic velocity.

  • ₹100 in a bank → loan → factory → wages → consumption → taxes
  • The same ₹100 in gold → zero velocity

When savings shift from: productive financial assets → inert physical assets

The economy experiences:

  • Liquidity tightening
  • Higher borrowing costs
  • Slower industrial expansion

So yes—at scale, metal hoarding indirectly suppresses growth.

3. Then why do common people still choose gold?

This is where human psychology and institutional trust come in. People choose gold because:

  • It is a default safe, not because it is productive
  • Protection against inflation and currency erosion
  • Distrust in:
    • Market volatility
    • Corporate governance
    • Policy consistency
    • Financial literacy gaps

So gold investment by households is often: A symptom of systemic mistrust, not economic wisdom.

4. Important distinction: Individual vs Economy

Here’s the subtle but critical line:

For an individual

  • Gold = insurance, not growth
  • Small allocation can stabilize wealth
  • Acts as a psychological and financial safety net

For an economy

  • Excessive household gold accumulation = capital stagnation
  • Long-term drag on productive sectors

Both statements can be true simultaneously.

5. When gold & silver do make sense

Metals are justified when used as:

  • 5–10% risk hedge, not core investment
  • Inflation shock absorber
  • Crisis buffer (geopolitical, currency collapse scenarios)

They become harmful when:

  • They replace long-term productive assets
  • They dominate household savings culture

6. The deeper structural issue (often ignored)

If people trusted that:

  • Industry is fair
  • Markets are transparent
  • Policies are stable
  • Savings will not be silently eroded

 

Gold demand would naturally decline, so the real solution is not “discourage gold”, but:

  • Strengthen productive investment channels
  • Improve financial literacy
  • Ensure inflation-adjusted real returns
  • Build long-term trust in institutions

7. Refined statement

 “Household investments in precious metals preserve value but do not create value. When adopted at scale, they reduce capital circulation, limit industrial financing, and indirectly slow economic growth—especially in developing economies.”

That’s a balanced, defensible, and mature position.

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